The 13% Rule

Never in NFL history has a QB who hoisted the Lombardi trophy done so, while making more than 13% of his team’s salary cap. Period. Has there been Super Bowl winning QBs that were later rewarded with giant contracts above 13% of their cap? Of course. Is the QB arguable the most important cornerstone of your franchise? Undoubtedly, but in a league with 53 active players per team and a hard cap for spending you can not leverage 1/6th or more of your available funds and the proof is in the proverbial pudding.

Almost 85% of teams who won the Super Bowl in the salary cap era did so while paying their QB 10% or less of the cap. More than HALF those teams had a QB making 6% or LESS! This isn’t hyperbole, you DON’T leverage the farm for one person. Not only is this statistic known in NFL circles, it’s religion among many NFL elite, including front office and players alike. Tom Brady made 12.25% of Tampa’s cap this year. You think that’s an accident? Brees and Rodgers both accounting for between 10-12% of their teams cap in 2020. The GOATS know that the extra 2 to 3 players that might make a difference can be added (or extended) by them staying under that number. Even Mahomes won’t push above that 13% threshold until 2023 if there isn’t a cap explosion by then. The point is that I have no problem with a QB who wants to make 20% of their team’s cap, I have a problem with the organization that gives it to them.

For recent history here are the teams in 2020 that paid their QB above 13%:

The Dallas Cowboys unable to strike a deal with Dak Prescott were on the hook for 14.4% of their cap dollars to the young star. Even before his season-ending injury the Cowboys were not playing well at all. Is Dak Prescott a premier QB in the NFL, yes. Am I giving him 20% of my cap space, not on your life.

Seattle let Russ Cook this year and did so while the former Super Bowl winning QB raked in 15.6% of the Seahawks’ salary cap hit. Their pass defense was dead last in the league through most of the year and they did not have nearly enough pieces to make a deep playoff run.

And then there was Goff… the much maligned L.A. Rams QB who has been inconsistent of late still managed to get his team to the playoffs, much of that success resulted from a top-tier defense with Aaron Donald at it’s center. Donald and Goff will make over 62 million against the cap next season and based on the possibility of a smaller cap in 2021 that could be 1/3rd of the Rams’ cap space for two players. One has to wonder if the Rams don’t address that situation sooner rather than later.

In summation everyone wants the best deal, and there are smart ways that you can structure contracts to be mutually beneficial for all parties, see Kansas City Chiefs. Everyone wants the shiny sports car, but if the team looks like Section 8 housing, maybe we work on some foundational issues first.