One of the things that has really become prevalent over the last decade, is sports analytics. Every professional sports team has departments of data scientists and analytics teams, whether they broadcast that fact or not. Now there are a lot of old school sports fans who HATE analytics with a passion. Anyone who has followed baseball and/or watched Moneyball knows that “traditionalists” think that statistics are just things they would rather wipe their ass with, than to adopt. But what Billy Beane and others did for baseball changed the game forever. We now throw around the term OBP or on-base percentage like it has always been there. Of course there are purists who will tell you they can still scout or evaluate a player 100 times better than a computer can, but they miss the point. Someone said to me yesterday, analytics can be useful and win you games, but it can also lose them. I replied, so can kickers, but you don’t show up to the game without them. Analytics are not meant to be a replacement for actual human observation and coaching. It is just a tool in your bag and when used properly a very useful tool. Why don’t you ask any NFL team if they use the point system in the Draft that assigns a numeric value to each draft pick, so teams can trade up or down the board and find value. They all do, but before Jimmy Johnson and the Dallas Cowboys invented it, that system didn’t exist. Billion dollar franchises count on analytics every single day to make decisions, so if by now you haven’t embraced data as a useful contribution to sports, then you’re just being obtuse.
Now, if you’ve accepted that analytics can be a great way to breakdown and understand the game, you may still have concerns over what data to pay attention to and what to ignore. For example, if you look at the players in the NFL who lead the league in tackles, many of them are on atrocious teams who give up tons of yards, and therefore the defense is always on the field. Having the most tackles doesn’t necessarily make you the best tackler in football. Now, if you are on this list AND your missed tackle rate is among the best, then that provides a better picture. Alex Singleton, of the Philadelphia Eagles, would be a great example. He it top 10 in tackles this season, but has the most missed tackles of any player in the NFL, compared to say Nick Bolton of Kansas City who is the only player with at least 100 tackles and a missed tackle rate below 3%. Context is key, with everything, and the more data points and context you can create, the more you can tell an accurate and thorough story that provides insight into players and teams, and the manner if which they achieve success. Which brings me to the quarterback position in the NFL. One of the most scrutinized, dissected, and fiercely debated topics in sports.
Now of course I interact with people all the time who say QB X is gonna be a Hall of Famer, etc., etc., and I say oh why do you say that. “You can just watch, you can just tell.” This to me is the laziest f**king argument any sports fan can come up with. We live in 2021, you have every imaginable stat available at your finger tips, unlimited channels of sports talk radio, podcasts (insert shameless plug), and tv shows that can give you context on how players perform. If you tell me that player X is top 5 in the league and I ask you to explain why, you have to come with something better than, “you can just tell.” What you’ve really just said is, I’m either lazy or an idiot, but I have no ability to defend my stance, because I don’t know what I’m talking about. Now what you could say is, “Well I don’t know performance wise if he’s the best, but I just like him a lot.” That is perfectly acceptable, you can like and support any player you want, because they are from your hometown, because they have the same first name, maybe you just like the way they part their hair. All of this is fine, and it is not my business to tell anyone who their favorite players should be. However… if you climb in the ring with sports folks and want to join the conversation, and add your two cents you better be ready to box. Which means, if you think a player is elite, or better than others, you need to have intelligible evidence to support your claim. This does not mean we have to agree on who the best is, it just means that YOU chose to engage in a conversation about player evaluation, you need to come at me with something better than, “You can just tell.”
So, now that I’m up on my high horse, you must be asking yourself, “Well tell us how you evaluate QBs, since you’re so smart.” Listen, there are all kinds of ways to evaluate QB performances, some much better than others. However, some stats are either misleading, or have no place in the conversation at all. For example, wins is NOT a QB stat. Let me say it again… wins is not a QB stat, I’ll die on this hill. If it is, tell me why DeShaun Watson is 28-25, or why Jim McMahon has a higher win rate than Aaron Rodgers, or Tony Romo a higher win rate than Dan Marino. Of course you want your QB to lead you to wins, but it’s not a QB stat, which brings me to a stat that I have seen become very popular lately, and that is Intended Air Yards. As fans at home watch, they love to see a QB launch it 40 plus yards down the field, it’s exciting and more dramatic than slowly working your way down the field, and I get it. It’s fun to watch, but do deep passes correlate to giving your team the best chance to win? That’s a loaded question and it depends on a ton of factors, including who you are throwing it to, and how your offense is structured. What we can do, is provide context regarding how efficient any quarterback is at moving the ball down the field through the passing game overall. Now, as I have mentioned a particular stat is like one sentence in a book. It gives you information, but not the whole story. That brings us to Intended Air Yardage. Now a stat that used to be popular was yards per completion, but as many pointed out, this did not differentiate between a 1 yard pass going for 49 yards after the catch and a 50 yard laser strike down the field, thus people began using intended air yardage to evaluate passers based on how far down field they were throwing the ball. It seems like a good measuring stick, If one QB averages 10 yards down field per attempt, and another is throwing at our near the line of scrimmage, then with all other things being equal we might say that the first QB is a much better QB than the second, this is where monikers like “Check Down King” and “Dink and Dunker” came from. It was perceived that a passer with a lower intended air yards was not as good of a QB, because they were “unable” to make throws downfield. As an example Drew Brees at the end of his career was averaging only 6 intended air yards per throw, but when you have players like Alvin Kamara who can take a screen pass yard at any given moment, why would you throw it 15 yards down field all day? But I digress, so what is the problem with Intended Air Yards? Let’s look at the current list and see if you can spot it.
| Rk | Player | Team | Starts | Cmp | Att | Yds | IAY | IAY/PA |
| 1 | Russell Wilson | SEA | 12 | 224 | 345 | 2639 | 3421 | 9.9 |
| 2 | Justin Fields | CHI | 10 | 159 | 270 | 1870 | 2641 | 9.8 |
| 3 | Lamar Jackson* | BAL | 12 | 246 | 382 | 2882 | 3543 | 9.3 |
| 4 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 14 | 248 | 406 | 2930 | 3603 | 8.9 |
| 5 | Baker Mayfield | CLE | 13 | 237 | 380 | 2825 | 3347 | 8.8 |
| 6 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | 15 | 357 | 534 | 4339 | 4571 | 8.6 |
| 7 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 15 | 336 | 481 | 4165 | 3921 | 8.2 |
| 8 | Josh Allen | BUF | 15 | 374 | 575 | 4048 | 4662 | 8.1 |
| 9 | Derek Carr | LVR | 15 | 384 | 559 | 4363 | 4539 | 8.1 |
| 10 | Kyler Murray* | ARI | 12 | 279 | 404 | 3284 | 3243 | 8 |
| 11 | Teddy Bridgewater | DEN | 14 | 285 | 426 | 3052 | 3417 | 8 |
| 12 | Mac Jones | NWE | 15 | 310 | 461 | 3313 | 3681 | 8 |
| 13 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 15 | 319 | 543 | 3225 | 4365 | 8 |
| 14 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | 15 | 358 | 539 | 3971 | 4281 | 7.9 |
| 15 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 14 | 365 | 531 | 3928 | 4178 | 7.9 |
| 16 | Tom Brady* | TAM | 15 | 422 | 632 | 4580 | 5004 | 7.9 |
| 17 | Aaron Rodgers* | GNB | 14 | 323 | 475 | 3689 | 3757 | 7.9 |
| 18 | Taylor Heinicke | WAS | 13 | 285 | 440 | 3052 | 3442 | 7.8 |
| 19 | Carson Wentz | IND | 15 | 289 | 460 | 3230 | 3475 | 7.6 |
| 20 | Zach Wilson | NYJ | 11 | 187 | 330 | 2013 | 2522 | 7.6 |
| 21 | Sam Darnold | CAR | 9 | 197 | 338 | 2176 | 2577 | 7.6 |
| 22 | Jacoby Brissett | MIA | 5 | 141 | 225 | 1283 | 1691 | 7.5 |
| 23 | Jimmy Garoppolo | SFO | 14 | 278 | 409 | 3494 | 3029 | 7.4 |
| 24 | Justin Herbert* | LAC | 15 | 387 | 577 | 4394 | 4260 | 7.4 |
| 25 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 15 | 321 | 481 | 3327 | 3498 | 7.3 |
| 26 | Patrick Mahomes* | KAN | 15 | 383 | 579 | 4310 | 4254 | 7.3 |
| 27 | Daniel Jones | NYG | 11 | 232 | 361 | 2428 | 2616 | 7.2 |
| 28 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 10 | 230 | 328 | 2339 | 2279 | 6.9 |
| 29 | Davis Mills | HOU | 9 | 219 | 329 | 2200 | 2285 | 6.9 |
| 30 | Matt Ryan | ATL | 15 | 342 | 504 | 3555 | 3444 | 6.8 |
| 31 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 14 | 336 | 515 | 3373 | 3486 | 6.8 |
| 32 | Jared Goff | DET | 13 | 311 | 464 | 3007 | 2939 | 6.3 |
Now we can see right away who is consistently pushing the ball downfield. Russell Wilson sits atop this list, known for his deep arching “moon ball.” Yet, we see Rookie Justin Fields at number 2, who has been part of one of the most historically inept offenses in recent memory, and I don’t think anyone would say that Baker Mayfield is outplaying Mahomes who is 26th on the list. Trevor Lawrence, who has thrown 1 TD and 5 interceptions since October is higher than Brady and Rodgers… so what does all of this mean? It means that Intended Air Yards is a shit statistic that does nothing more than tell you how deep a player throws the average pass down field. It does NOT account for how often those passes are intercepted, off target, or result in touchdowns. The stat honestly tells you more about the style of passing game each team runs. As much as the Ravens are known for their rushing prowess, when Lamar does it let it fly, he is slinging it further down field than just about anyone. Tony Romo has marveled in the booth about Mahomes’ maturation this year and taking what the defense gives him. Mahomes has learned that he will take 6 yards on every play if you want to give it to him, versus going for the home run every down, which is why he lead the league in turnovers at the beginning of the year. Justin Herbert has had some beautiful highlight reel deep shots that make us think he consistently pushes the ball down field, when in reality, he isn’t even in the top 1/4 of the league on number of throws 20+ yards downfield. Nor does he need to be, the Chargers have a top 8 offense and can hurt you in a number of different ways.
So what does this mean? If Yards Per Completion doesn’t tell us how many passes were 1 yard with YAC, versus bombs, how can I try to evaluate the QB position. Well fortunately, if you are looking for specific efficiency over range there is a great stat that marries both of these two principals, and it is called Air Yards per Completion. So unlike Intended Air Yards, which completely disregards accuracy or Yards Per Completion, which takes no account of depth of target, Air Yards per completion ONLY takes into account completed passes, so that gets rid of the players who are playing Madden ball half the time and aren’t seeing much return on those deep balls. When this stat adjusts for average air yards per completion, the list now looks like this:
| Rk | Player | Team | CAY/Cmp |
| 1 | Justin Fields | CHI | 7.4 |
| 2 | Lamar Jackson* | BAL | 7 |
| 3 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | 6.8 |
| 4 | Josh Allen | BUF | 6.6 |
| 5 | Russell Wilson | SEA | 6.5 |
| 6 | Joe Burrow | CIN | 6.4 |
| 7 | Baker Mayfield | CLE | 6.4 |
| 8 | Kyler Murray* | ARI | 6.2 |
| 9 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | 6.2 |
| 10 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 6.2 |
| 11 | Jimmy Garoppolo | SFO | 6.1 |
| 12 | Matt Ryan | ATL | 6 |
| 13 | Derek Carr | LVR | 5.9 |
| 14 | Justin Herbert* | LAC | 5.9 |
| 15 | Carson Wentz | IND | 5.9 |
| 16 | Zach Wilson | NYJ | 5.9 |
| 17 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 5.8 |
| 18 | Teddy Bridgewater | DEN | 5.8 |
| 19 | Daniel Jones | NYG | 5.8 |
| 20 | Mac Jones | NWE | 5.6 |
| 21 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 5.5 |
| 22 | Tom Brady* | TAM | 5.5 |
| 23 | Jacoby Brissett | MIA | 5.5 |
| 24 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 5.5 |
| 25 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 5.4 |
| 26 | Aaron Rodgers* | GNB | 5.3 |
| 27 | Sam Darnold | CAR | 5.3 |
| 28 | Taylor Heinicke | WAS | 5.2 |
| 29 | Davis Mills | HOU | 5.1 |
| 30 | Patrick Mahomes* | KAN | 5.0 |
| 31 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 4.9 |
| 32 | Jared Goff | DET | 4.4 |
Now at first glance, the list might not look so different, but look how far Baker Mayfield and Jalen Hurts have fallen, while Josh Allen and some others have jumped, but most importantly, what you are looking at right now is a measure of how many yards past the line of scrimmage each QB averages on their COMPLETED passes, which if we are being honest are the passes we care about the most. So what jumps off the page to you? Is it the fact the Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes are on the bottom of the list? How can that be?? I’ll tell you how. If you look at yards after catch stats, guess what two QBs are in the top 3? Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes both average over 6 YARDS after catch PER COMPLETION. So let’s do some basic math. If you add both the 5 yards each averages per completion through the air, add the 6 yards of YAC, that means the average completion for Rodgers or Mahomes is over 11 yards. Let’s look at Justin Field’s who is 1st or 2nd on both of the above lists, he chucks it deep and even his completions are on average further than everyone else in the league… Guess who ranks 30th in YAC? Justin Fields, which drops that Yards Per Completion down and more importantly, guess who is 29th in completion %, Justin Fields. So when you consistently throw further and your completions are further than anyone else… BUT you complete those passes more inconsistently than anyone else, the numbers do not sway in your favor.
Here is another fun one, Tua Tagovalioa and Tom Brady both average exactly 5.5 air yards per completion. How can that be? Brady is shattering passing records and Tua doesn’t seem to be filling up the stat column. Well again, let’s add context. First off, Tua is actually completing over 70% of his passes, which leads the NFL, and when you consider the fact that the Dolphins are one of the 5 worst teams in drops, it just tells you how insane his accuracy really is. There are only 3 seasons in NFL history where a player completed 72% or better of their passes, all 3 were done by Drew Brees. So if Tua is super accurate and has they same air yards per completion as Brady, WHY does one of them play like the goat with over 4500 yards, and the other barely has a stat line? Fair question. The first answer is volume. Due to injury, Tua has 10 starts this year, to Brady’s 15. Additionally, the record for passing attempts per game is 38.3 held by Andrew Luck, Brady is currently averaging over 42 attempts per game!! That is 12 more PER GAME than Tua and about 300 more total attempts. So what would the numbers look like if you extrapolated all the measurables on Tua to the same amount of attempts as Brady, so glad you asked:
Brady: 4,580 yards, 37 TDs, 11 INTs
Tua: 4,487. yards, 29 TDS, 17 INTs
Now, does Brady still look like the Goat vs. a kid who has played less than 20 career games? Of course! Brady is WAY, WAY better than Tua Tagovalioa and most other QBS in the league, but do you see how much more reasonable the comparisons are when you match volume? Bruce Arians offense is built around pass, pass, pass. You throw in Godwin, Evans, Gronk, and a competent offensive line and why wouldn’t they throw the ball 50 times a game, but not all offenses are created equal. Let’s go back to Justin Fields, he averages just 22 attempts per game, practically HALF of what Brady averages. You aren’t going to see 300 yard games out of a guy with half the attempts. There is so much that goes into why an offense performs the way it does, starting with the offensive line. No protection, no time to find and make better throws. WR room not great? No YAC, and less likely to have better throwing lanes. Offensive Coordinator is also a make or break factor for QB stat watchers.
SO… after all of this WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED??? We have learned that evaluating the QB position is one of the most complex things you can do, and no single stat is the smoking gun pointing to an elite QB, but the more you understand the angle at which each stat comes from, its strengths and weaknesses, you begin to frame out the story. You understand what data is imperative, what information is inconsequential, and where the balance is in combining multiple data points to create a clear and objective picture. Yards Per Attempt is actually a great stat that takes into account so many factors and is the only thing that as a team ultimately matters, because it shows you how many yards you get for every time you decide to pass the ball. It reflects accuracy, efficiency, YAC, and so much more. However, for those studying the quarterback, it doesn’t give a full picture of how responsible the QB is specifically for that number. Intended Air Yards means nothing, due to the huge blindspots it covers, and Air Yards per completion is helpful IF you add context of completion percentage. Having said that, the next time you hear someone call a QB a Dink and Dunker, remind them who the real Kings of the check down are, and why that’s perfectly fine.
