As the offseason continues to drone on, one of the first things us fans start to get excited about is fantasy football. Whether you are in a casual work league, or you are a seasoned commish trying to hold down your own league and manage 8 other teams, fantasy football has added so much extra enjoyment to an already entertaining sport. With OTAs ramping up, we felt it was a perfect time to look ahead to some projected first tier talent in your upcoming fantasy draft. Read on to see where your favorite players rank in standard leagues, or for a full breakdown you can just listen to this week’s podcast below:
Quarterbacks
A position that can make or break you, this year’s fantasy QBs are full of promise, intrigue, and unknown variables. Are any of the rookies worth rostering? Which top ten players from last year will have a down year? Who will be a surprise top 5 finisher in 2021? We pulled up the ESPN standard league projections and have a few thoughts of our own. Here is how ESPN predicts the top 10 fantasy QBs finishing this year:
| T-1 | Josh Allen |
| T-1 | Patrick Mahomes |
| 3 | Kyler Murray |
| 4 | Dak Prescott |
| 5 | Lamar Jackson |
| 6 | Tom Brady |
| 7 | Aaron Rodgers |
| 8 | Justin Herbert |
| 9 | Russel Wilson |
| 10 | Jalen Hurts |
Overall, their predictions at QB are not that outside of where we have most of them slated. Allen outscored Mahomes last year and people forget just how many points he picks up, due to rushing yards and rushing TDs. In fact, Allen’s 25 rushing TDs since 2018 leads the NFL. For this reason, he is just as much of a fantasy threat (if not more) than Patrick Mahomes. Next on the list you have Kyler Murray who also is no stranger to gaining yards on the ground. Murray had 819 rushing yards and 11 rushing TDs last year to go with almost 4,000 passing yards and another 26 TDs through the air. The full dual threat potential easily puts Murray as a top 5 fantasy QB candidate. Dak Prescott is an interesting selection as we know he was on pace for 6K yards last season before the injury. The question is will the defense be as bad as last year, thus making Dak forced to throw for 45 times a game? We get into that more on the podcast, but let’s look at another mobile QB. Lamar Jackson will always be a threat due to his legs, and people forget in 2019 he was the top scorer in all of fantasy. I have no problem with his slotted prediction by ESPN. What can you say about Tom Brady? All of his weapons are back and he is going into year 2 of this offense, with a team who knows exactly what they are capable of. Brady threw for 40 TDs last year, second only to Aaron Rodgers, and he will light it up once again this year. Draft him with confidence. Speaking of the aforementioned Rodgers, it is a little odd that the reigning MVP is dropped to 7 on the list after a top 4 finish last year. ESPN may think his pace was just too good to be repeated OR they really believe he may be on the move. I’d never bet against Aaron and if 4 QBs jump off the board and King of the Discount Doublecheck himself is still there, I’m pulling the trigger. At 8, we have our first second year QB in Justin Herbert. While we saw flashes of greatness last year, the changeover in staff may affect him. I don’t mind the prediction spot, but would probably pass him up if this number 9 player was still on the board. Russel Wilson is penciled in at 9, after setting franchise records in Seattle last year and D.K. Metcalf coming into his own, I am fully comfortable with taking Wilson as high as 5. Finally, Jalen Hurts is an intriguing choice. He only had a handful of full starts, but is now QB1 and is reunited with former teammate DeVonte Smith. He has a ton of upside and I don’t mind him being listed at 10, the rest of the team is the bigger unknown, so for me this pick comes with an amount of risk I’m not super comfortable making him my QB1 outside of deeper leagues.
Running Backs
The running backs on your roster may very well decide the difference between championship and and early playoff exit. Unlike the QB position, many RBs face the issue of shared time, usage, and role (depending on if you are in a PPR league). In the standard format though, ESPN has its top 10 projected running backs as follows:
| 1 | Derrick Henry |
| 2 | Dalvin Cook |
| 3 | Saquon Barkley |
| 4 | Christian McCaffrey |
| 5 | Jonathan Taylor |
| 6 | Nick Chubb |
| 7 | Zeke Elliot |
| 8 | Alvin Kamara |
| 9 | Cam Akers |
| 10 | Aaron Jones |
It’s the worst kept secret in the NFL that Derrick Henry is going to get the ball, he had 66 more carries than the next closest RB on the list. The 2k King will return to defend his crown, and while he has shown no signs of slowing down, the loss of major weapons at WR and TE, and a new OC may slow down the offense as a whole. Having said that you could easily draft Henry or Dalvin Cook at the number one overall slot and no one could fault you. I think Cook will perform even better this year with what Vikings fans hope will be an improved defense, which will keep games closer. However, his 5 fumbles last year were slightly concerning. At 3, ESPN has Saquon Barkley looking to return as a premier back in the NFL after missing last season entirely. Barkley and McCaffrey are both suffering from the same concerns, returning from injury, question marks at the quarterback position and head coaches still trying to find their groove. Having said that, both are way too talented to pass up, you could make the case for this entire top 4 being fairly interchangeable in your draft rankings. Jonathan Taylor is an interesting choice at 5. He broke on to the scene last year and finished 3rd in rushing yards. With the backfield now primarily his, Taylor will look to build on an impressive rookie campaign. The real question is how you believe the overall offense will move the ball under Wentz. Nick Chubb’s stats and accolades are matched only by the pure beauty of watching him play football. He feels like the closest thing to Bo Jackson in Tecmo Bowl that we have seen on the field in a long time. If he didn’t split time with Hunt he might be a top 3 pick. Even with sharing the workload he presents great value at 6. Zeke Elliot is a question mark for me this year. He finished outside of the top 15 last year and if the Cowboys defense isn’t drastically improved he may not be in for a stellar year. Make this pick with cautious optimism, and draft well behind him. Alvin Kamara is a slam dunk pick at just about anywhere on the board. I feel that ESPN sees the drop off at QB as a deterrent from Kamara being top 5 in production, so I don’t completely disagree with the slot. Cam Akers at 9 for me is a real reach. He finished outside the top 40 in ppg last year, and I know people are saying with Brown gone it is now his backfield, but even if you look at only the games where Akers got 10+ carries he averaged 9 PPG in standard leagues good for 30th. While he could be very dangerous if Stafford keeps the chains moving down the field, this is NOT the reincarnation of Todd Gurly. He would not be in my top 10 RBs. Instead I would draft who ESPN has at the 10 spot Aaron Jones. ESPN seems to think Jones will regress a little bit OR they are adding the risk of Rodgers not being there, but Jones is definitely a top 10 RB pick.
Wide Receivers
Outside of a select few, wide receivers are often boom or bust. You can get 167 yards one week and 37 the next. Often times fantasy owners are looking at matchups just as much as they are looking at talent on their own roster. The NFL is riddled with elite and rising WRs, here as how ESPN predicts the top 10 at the position.
| 1 | Tyreek Hill |
| 2 | Davante Adams |
| 3 | Stefon Diggs |
| 4 | A.J. Brown |
| 5 | D.K. Metcalf |
| 6 | DeAndre Hopkins |
| 7 | Justin Jefferson |
| 8 | Calvin Ridley |
| 9 | Mike Evans |
| 10 | Terry McLaurin |
The top 3 WRs should not surprise anyone. Hill, Adams, and Diggs all finished top 3 last season. The only thing that should affect a top 3 finish again would be injury or the departure of Aaron Rodgers. Outside of that these guys are as safe a bet as one can make in an unpredictable world. At 4 though, I struggle with A.J. Brown, not because I don’t think he has the talent, but because he is now the lone established pass catcher in Tennessee and I think defenses double him and call it a day. That’s not to say he can’t be productive, but when you had Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith in your offense, while Derrick Henry was in the backfield, it was a pick your poison. I worry that Brown may have a drop off this year (BUYER BEWARE). D.K. Metcalf is more than just the giver of glorious memes, he is a giant brick wall streaking down the field, quickly becoming an elite WR, and is a solid pick at 5. The only reason DeAndre Hopkins is not higher on ESPN’s list (or mine), is due to reality. Arizona loves to run the ball and they are damn good at it too. Add that to Murray’s penchant for taking off with the ball and it’s going to hurt your number one WR’s production. Hopkins for my money is the most talented WR in the game, but due to the aforementioned scheme, he sits at 6 overall. Still a solid choice, you could do worse. Justin Jefferson smashed the bar for rookie expectations with 1400 yards in 2020, and made the Diggs trade actually become one of the few NFL trades where both sides won. He will continue to ascend and is easily a top 10 pick in fantasy. Clavin Ridley is not only a great value at 8, but I would potentially draft him even higher, If Julio Jones does depart that could even benefit Ridley more as there is still enough talent on the Falcons roster to not allow teams to just key on Ridley. Terry McLaurin has shown scary abilities in Washington with inconsistent QB play at best. Ryan Fitzpatrick automatically boosts his fantasy value and puts him in the top 10 at the WR position.
Tight Ends
Tight Ends are often the red-headed step child of the fantasy football world, often not garnering as many points as a waiver wire kicker. However, everyone has to play a TE and the difference between a top performer and low performer will definitely shave points off your weekly score. Let’s take a look at how ESPN has the TE position forecasted for 2021.
| 1 | Travis Kelce |
| 2 | Darren Waller |
| 3 | George Kittle |
| 4 | Mark Andrews |
| 5 | Kyle Pitts |
| 6 | T.J. Hockenson |
| 7 | Logan Thomas |
| 8 | Dallas Goedert |
| 9 | Robert Tonyan |
| 10 | Mike Gesicki |
No surprised at the top with Kelce taking the number one spot. Until he is knocked off his pedestal he will remain the best option at TE. A couple players coming for that pedestal are Waller and Kittle. Waller has established himself as a premier TE in the league, and if Kittle is healthy he will definitely be racing the other two in stats all year. These three plus Mark Andrews could all be entertained as top tier fantasy selections. The only thing may hurt Andrews is just how brutal the Ravens schedule is. Having said at that, all of the top 4 would be a huge asset to any team. Five is where the predictions take a turn for me. Pitts at five seems unfathomable to me, with no shade thrown at Pitts, he is as gifted as they come. I just see so many mouths to feed in Atlanta, and the fact that they just traded for Hayden Hurst last year. Arthur Smith does love his TE’s though, so there is potential upside, 5 is way too rich fro my blood. T.J. Hockenson at 6 is another one that, while it’s not a terrible prediction, I just don’t love it. He’s downgrading from Stafford to Goff, first year head coach, too much boom or bust for me to take that high. Now Logan Thomas is a kid I love. He had 72 catches for 670 yards in 2020 with ABYSMAL QB play. Fitzmagic is locked and loaded and I expect big things out of Thomas this year. I do understand why Dallas Goedert was bumped up 5 spots to 8 in projections, and it’s simple. Jalen Hurts should make this offense more dynamic in 2021. Miles Sanders will keep the defense honest and if Hurts catches fire, the Eagles pass catchers would be huge beneficiaries. Robert Tonyan is being slept on at 9. Stop treating him like your kid brother, he was THIRD in fantasy points last year, and was leading the league in yards of separation at target point. He’s in my top 5, hands downs. Rounding at the top 10 is another TE I think deserves more love, Mike Gesicki. He had a top 5 finish last year while battling injuries and dealing with inconsistent QB play and offensive struggles. Tua Tagovailoa will have a better command of the offense and its much upgraded pass catchers. I do undertand that there will be plenty of mouths to feed in Miami, so I can see a little bit or hesitation, but for money he’s way too damn good of a weapon to let slide outside the top 5 or 6 tight ends off the board.
Defense
Defense is one of the toughest fantasy things to predict year over year, but here is a look at how ESPN sees the top point producers shaking out.
| 1 | Buccaneers |
| 2 | Ravens |
| 3 | Washington |
| T-4 | 49’ers |
| T-4 | Bills |
| T-4 | Steelers |
Right off the bat I’m perplexed over the number one overall spot given to the Bucs. They are a well balanced team bringing back all their starters, and they have the best run D in the league, but pass defense is hit or miss, which is why they allowed 29 TDs through the air last year. Although they didn’t have a top 5 finish last year, they could break the top 5 this year due to a cakewalk schedule. I just don’t know if I see them as one, but I know the reasoning behind it, even if I don’t agree with it. The Ravens are a decent pick here at 2, the defense is the identity of the Ravens and they will help your fantasy team each week. They ranked 4th in points last year and should be just as productive. Do not sleep on Washington. The team without a name is NOT the team without a defense. One of the most elite pass defenses in the NFL, Washington will only be better this year with more stability at QB. Having three teams tie in your top 5 seems lazy, but none of these picks would be terrible. The Niners have to stay healthy and get competent play out of their offense. If the pass rushers in Buffalo pin their ears back and get after it, it could be an exciting year for the Bills. I do think despite the Steelers having the toughest schedule in the NFL, the Steelers will again be a top 5 fantasy defense. What is crazy to me is how the Rams are left completely off this list, number one fantasy defense a year ago, who just got better on offense. I get that they lost their DC, but Aaron Donald alone will get you somewhere in the top 5.
Kickers
Kickers are people too! Yes they are, but a waiver wire kicker will be only a few points less than a kicker you draft. You want my list? Jason Sanders, that’s my list. Fuck it, send it in!