By Justin Snider
The 2021 NFL Draft will likely start with the selection of a quarterback. Therefore, it seems like a perfect place to start our look at this year’s prospects.
Trevor Lawrence – Clemson
This QB class starts with a generational talent in Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence is being regarded as a John Elway, Peyton Manning, and Andrew Luck, type of prospect. He is a once in a decade type talent. The hype around Lawrence has been palpable since he was a high school player at Cartersville High School in Georgia. In high school he led his team to 41 straight victories and 2 state championships. He also broke the Georgia high school record for passing yards (13,902) and passing touchdowns (161), a record previously held by fellow Clemson alum, Deshaun Watson. As a freshman at Clemson, Trevor Lawrence led the Tigers to a National Championship, while collecting National Championship offensive MVP honors. He was also a 3-time ACC champion. At 6’6 220 pounds, he has prototypical size for the position, while also showing an ability to run the ball which has become a valuable weapon in todays NFL offenses.
Lawrence’s 2020 season stats include a 69% completion percentage, 3,153 yards, 24 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in only ten games. He rushed for 203 yards and 8 touchdowns, numbers that were lower than his 2019 total of 563 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns. This lower stat line is reflective of both the fewer games and the intent to keep him from being exposed to injury. We’ve all seen the tape. He can make all the throws, demostrates poise and leadership. Lawrence will (barring some cataclysmic event) find himself the number one pick in the 2021 NFL draft, and will be fun to watch for years to come.
Justin Fields – Ohio State
After Lawrence, there is a slight drop off in talent. However, I believe that gap has closed considerably now from where it stood at the beginning of the season. Justin Fields has been regarded as a potential top 10 pick for quite some time now and did nothing this year to make you think otherwise. While his performance against Northwestern (12 for 27 for 114 yards and 2 interceptions) gave many people doubts about his ability, his performance against Clemson in the playoffs showed his ceiling. In that game, Fields went 22 of 28 for 385 yards and 6 touchdowns. Fields has good size at 6’3 230 pounds, and is just as dangerous as a runner as he is a passer. His final state line in only 8 games in 2020 was 2100 yards, 22 TDs, 6 INTs, and a 70.2% completion rate. We often like to over react when a player has a good or bad game, but that pendulum swings way too far in both directions. Fields has proven himself worthy of being a first round NFL quarterback, and much like the 2020 class, I think there is some great talent with Fields and others that will make for more exciting football on Sundays… and Mondays… also Thursdays, sometimes Saturdays, you get the idea.
Trey Lance – North Dakota State
Heading into the 2020 season, many were looking forward to seeing North Dakota State’s Trey Lance after he won the Walter Payton award, Jerry Rice award, and set an NCAA record for the most passes thrown in a season without an interception (287). Not bad for a QB in his first season as a starter. In 2019, he completed 67% of his passes, for 2,786 yards, 28 touchdowns and ZERO Interceptions. He also averaged 6.5 yards per carry for 1,100 total yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground in 2019. Unfortunately, we did not get to see him expand on his great 2019 season, because the Bison’s 2020 fall season was cancelled due to Covid-19. The Bisons initially planned to play a spring schedule, but Lance announced he would forgo his remaining eligibility to prepare for the NFL draft. All we were left with for 2020 was a non-conference game where he completed 50% of his passes, threw his first interception since October 13th, 2017 and had 143 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. It’s hard to put too much stock into that game with all the irregularities caused by the conflicts of Covid 19. While Lance also fits the prototypical size at 6’4 225 pounds, he is a superb athlete, and has great arm strength. Many have argued he is inconsistent in his mechanics, and has played against subpar competition, which led to an inflated stat line in 2019. Personally, I believe he will be greatly suited in a situation where he can “redshirt” his first year in the NFL and allow the game to come to him as opposed to being thrown into the fire.
Zach Wilson – BYU
Zach Wilson had a decent 2019 season and hoped to build upon his previous body of work, which had him looking like a 4th or 5th round draft pick. What he accomplished in his 2020 campaign was a top 5 draft profile and the possibility of being the second quarterback taken off the board. While playing an extremely weak schedule, he completed 73.5 percent of his passes for 3,692 yards with 33 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. His only loss came against an out of this world year for a Coastal Carolina team. Wilson has a lot of positives, he is super competitive, fits the mold of what the NFL is looking for at the quarterback position, is accurate and can make all the throws. He does however have the label of a one year wonder and some have questioned his character. Those questions may come from him being labeled as a rich kid, traits you get when your Uncle is the founder of Jet Blue. I think in the right system, under the right guidance, Wilson can turn into a very productive quarterback, and I don’t buy his character concerns. In a year where we have stressed the importance of an excellent scouting department NFL teams will be doing their due diligence to find out if Wilson is the real deal.
After these 4 quarterbacks, who I believe will all be top 10 picks when the draft is all said and done, you have multiple quarterbacks with potential late first round grades all the way through potential non-drafted free agents. I would like to share my thoughts on some of these QBs in no particular order.
Mac Jones – Alabama
You have the quarterback of the National Champion Alabama Crimson Tide, Mac Jones who is 6’3 215 pounds. He had an undefeated junior season, which saw him throw for 4,500 yards, complete an astounding 77.4% of his passes for 41 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. Was he a product of the system and talent around him or can he evolve into a starting quarterback at the next level? He has all the makings of a potential mid first round pick with an ability to produce at the next level. There is no doubt that he was surrounded by excellent skill players and coaching. However, you can’t completely hold it against him, and have to at least appreciate that being at Alabama is an extra step in becoming pro ready. As I wrote in my Senior Bowl column, Mac Jones did nothing at all to hurt his draft stock, and did a lot to help it without even needing to play in the game. His intelligence and leadership abilities were shown throughout the week. Mac Jones is headed to an NFL team where I think coaches and players will respond well to him. He is going to have the opportunity at some point to be a starter in this league, what he does with it is up to him.
Kyle Trask – University of Florida
Up next you have Kyle Trask, the senior quarterback from Florida, who at 6’5 240 pounds had a 2020 season where he completed just under 69% of his passes for 4,283 yards, 43 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He also has been projected by many with a late first round grade. Trask has an interesting story. He went 7 years without being a starting QB. He was a back up in High School, and started his college career the same way. Once he got his chance though, he did the most with it. He goes through his progression. He isn’t afraid to force the issue when he needs to. I do like his pocket presence and ability to feel pressure and to look off defenders. My knock on him would be that he will need to learn to get rid of the ball much faster in the NFL and I want to see how he can pick up and orchestrate an NFL style offense. Others have questioned his arm strength and mobility. My consensus is that Trask could be an undervalued pick up in a fairly deep QB class.
Jamie Newman – Georgia
After those QBs you have guys with 2nd to 3rd round grades like Jamie Newman, the Wake Forest transfer who sat out the 2020 season with Georgia due to Covid concerns. I covered Newman in my Senior Bowl write up and here is an excerpt from that article:
“I believe that out of most of the seniors who opted out, Newman hurt himself the most by not playing this year. In a time where it can take a Joe Burrow type of year to go from potential late round pick, to the first overall pick, you want to make the most out of any opportunity. He had an opportunity to showcase his skills on a great Georgia team. At 6’4” 229 pounds, Newman has the height and weight most coaches covet in a quarterback. He also has great athleticism and throws a good deep ball with accuracy. His junior year at Wake Forest, Newman completed 61% of his passes for over 2,800 yards and 26 touchdowns while also rushing for 574 yards and 6 touchdowns. That year he started out strong but really struggled down the stretch. Newman ran a simple offense at Wake Forest. By going to Georgia he could have shown an ability to run a much more complex offense. Newman never had the talent around him on Wake Forest that he would have had at Georgia. Simply put, 2020 was his chance to really escalate his game and raise his draft stock, but each person has to make personal decisions that are in the best interest of themselves and their family. So after sitting out the season, his first chance to a showcase himself was at the Senior Bowl. While Newman didn’t do anything to really hurt his draft stock he also did nothing to help raise it.”
Kellen Mond – Texas A&M
One of 2 good quarterbacks from the state of Texas is Kellen Mond of Texas A&M who passed for nearly 10,000 yards in his four seasons as a starter. He had 19 touchdowns and 3 interceptions in his senior year. Some have questioned his accuracy and ability to read the field. While he did have a career completion rate below 60%, he improved steadily in most metrics year over year completing over 63% of his passes in 2020. He will need to be developed and groomed behind a strong veteran QB with great coaching, but has the potential to be an NFL quarterback and has definitely improved year over year.
Sam Ehlinger – Texas
You have to appreciate a guy who spent four years under center in college. Sam Ehlinger did just that with the Longhorns and amassed 11,436 yards for 94 touchdowns and 27 interceptions during his time at Texas. Some suggested that he should return to school, using his 5th year of eligibility, to improve his draft stock. However, with questions surrounding a new coaching staff, Ehlinger decided that now is the time to declare for the NFL draft. He showed flashes of brilliance at times, but overall has been inconsistent. This does not mean he cannot play at the next level, but will need to dedicate himself on the field and in the film room to soaking up any and every piece of advice he can get, in order to become an NFL caliber quarterback.
Ian Book – Notre Dame
Ian Book checks in on the smaller side of the QB scale. He is 6’0 205 pounds and was a 3 year starter at Notre Dame. He had an impressive career for the Fighting Irish totaling almost 9,000 yards 72 touchdowns, 20 interceptions and a 63.8% completion rating. Having said that, despite his late game heroics, we have also seen some cringe worthy moments that do not scream NFL starter. Some of his decision making and throws, have led some scouts to question his field vision and his understanding of what is happening in front of him. He has heart and the ability to make explosive plays, but all those intangibles suggest he will begin his NFL career with a clipboard and will have an uphill battle to becoming a permanent starter. That doesn’t mean he can’t do it, but he will be playing catch up with this years quarterback class.