Does defense still win championships?

By Waldo Waldie

There was an old adage that offense won games, but defense won championships. However, over the last several decades we have seen an explosion of offense in the NFL. Just take a look at how many points are being scored each year and the numbers tell the story. NFL offenses are scoring more points than ever before in record shattering fashion. Is this a reflection on the defenses? Are today’s NFL offenses just too potent, or are we using the wrong metrics to over-sensationalize high scoring offenses? I love a good shoot-out and the NFL does too, it’s why the rules favor the offense and the league wants to continue to evolve into high scoring matches that drive ratings and interest. Many of us notice the improved performance by QBS and their offenses, and naturally draw the conclusion that offense matters more these days. You must be able to score points! While we are partially right to draw the conclusion that you need a well orchestrated offense, most teams already accomplish this. Let me provide some context. Take a look at the chart below:

In the early 80s no QB had ever finished the season with a quarterback rating over 100. By the 1990s, it was common place for 1-3 QBs a year to hit this mark. Since 2009 we have seen no less than 4 QBs a year achieve this feat and in 2018 and 2019, 9 quarterbacks had a rating above 100. In 2020, for the first time in NFL history, ten QBs had a rating above 100. That’s almost a third of the league playing at a level that was previously unheard of. Now, I’m sure you’re probably reading this and saying, “No shit, we know offenses are much better today, that’s why you need a great one to compete.” The thing is, many teams are already at that level of competing and the extra couple of points a game in offense isn’t the barrier to a Super Bowl that they think it is… it’s the failures on defense.

Like most things in life, breaking down a modern NFL team is all about perspective. You have to look at things from the right angle to see what is staring you right in the face. Yes the entire league has a whole has better offense, so you can’t expect the production of 10 to 20 years ago to get you by, but even mediocre QBs by today’s standards are better than high level talent decades ago. Think about this, the 8 highest career passer ratings in NFL history all belong to QBs that were still playing in 2020. Does that mean Kirk Cousins is better than Marino and Montana, hardly. What is does mean is you have to look at production as it relates to the group as a whole, and this is where the conversation turns to defense.

In 2016, when the New England Patriots won their 6th Super Bowl they did so with the number one scoring defense in the league. Even though they allowed fewer points than anyone else that year, their 15.6 points per game allowed doesn’t even crack the top 100 list of fewest points allowed in a season. Just because offenses are scoring more points, does not mean defense has become irrelevant. In fact, you might argue the opposite. With rule changes and the current direction of the league you could easily make the case that having a good defense is imperative to slowing down all these high powered offenses. You aren’t going to have numbers like the 85/86 bears on defense, but no one is. There was an old joke about being out with a friend in the woods when you encounter a bear. You don’t need to outrun the bear, you just need to outrun your friend. By that same token, you need to have a great defense when measured against your contemporaries, but that doesn’t mean the importance has waned even the slightest. In fact, I’m about to make the argument that not ONLY is having a great defense relevant, but that having a great defense increases your chances of winning a Super Bowl MORE than having a great offense.

What if I told you in the last 20 years only one team with the number one scoring offense that year won the Super Bowl? One. Now what if I asked you to guess how many Super Bowls in the last 20 years were won by the number one scoring defense? SIX, 6 of 20 had the number one defense in the league that allowed the fewest points. You might be saying okay, well what about those other years, maybe the Super Bowl champ wasn’t the top offense, but they were probably top 3, right? Top three scoring offenses to win the Super Bowl in the last 20 years… four. Top three scoring defenses to win the Super Bowl in the last 20 years… NINE. Almost half had a top 3 defense. Oh and of those four offenses that had a top 3 offense, two of the four also had a top 5 defense that year. 15 of the last 20 Super Bowl champs had a top 10 defense. The Super Bowl winners during that time period averaged a better ranked defense than they did offense, and you ready for the real kicker? The average ranking for the QB rating of the Super Bowl winning QB in the last 20 years is.. 12th… 12.7 specifically, so you could actually round up to 13th. On average in the last 20 years the Super Bowl winning QB is ranked 13th in quarterback rating, and not a single one of them have won a ring while making more than 13% of their team’s salary cap that year.

Offense is important, there are only 32 individuals in the world that start each season as the quarterback of an NFL team, and at least half of them are competent and capable at their position. There is no argument that having a Mahomes or Watson gives your team a better chance to win than having a Trubisky or Darnold, absolutely no one is arguing that. What no one seems to be asking often enough though, is whether or not a Bashaud Breeland, Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald, Xavien Howard, etc. gives their team a much better chance to win than that of the next lowest tier replacement player, or even a combination of players. We saw what the Legion of Boom was, with all of those integral pieces that brought a championship to Seattle. This year we saw Russell Wilson making more than 13% of his team’s cap number, setting franchise records on offense, and a passing defense that ranked among the worst in the league the entire year.

At the end of the day offense is an important part of the game, you need great coaching, great playmakers and a QB at the helm who can run the show. However, I think we glorify the importance of signal callers more than we need to. Gotta have a good one, goes without saying, but at what expense and at the negligence of what other positions? I know that the Aaron Rodgers and Tom Bradys of the world don’t grow on trees, but to paraphrase Michael Scott, Let’s see Gruden find another Khalil Mack, you think Khalils grow on trees, well they don’t… there is no Khalil tree. Do you think the world is crawling with Chase Youngs? Show me that farm, with Chase Youngs and T.J. Watts sprouting up all over the place ripe for the plucking… show me that farm.